Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:52:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9004…a041 other 407 markets active 2d ago coverage 567d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$71 (-10%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate60%241W / 159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$44
crypto 18% −$25
sports 8% +$6
politics 3% −$10
culture 1% +$1
world 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -21.3% -28.8% 53% 47% -28.8%
≤30d 22 -13.2% -21.5% 59% 55% -21.0%
≤90d 101 -27.7% -34.6% 47% 46% -40.7%
all 400 -10.3% -18.9% 60% 56% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 56% -18.6%
10% -26.6% 48% -26.4%
15% -33.7% 34% -33.5%
20% -40.2% 23% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

567d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses241 / 159
Open positions7
Markets (closed)400 / 407
History coverage567d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 400 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 28 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 +$1 +44%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $1 $0 +11%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 14 $2 $0 +11%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $2 +$1 +65%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 05 $1 $0 +44%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02? May 05 $1 +$1 +70%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 05 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-22? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 27 $1 $0 +48%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? Apr 27 $2 +$1 +67%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Apr 24 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? Apr 22 $1 $0 +42%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 22 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-16? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-16? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-16? Apr 18 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 6d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 20d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 20d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 27d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 29d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 30d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 33d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 37d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 37d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.22 · official $8.22 (match) · 824 history records