Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:55:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9007…6607 crypto 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 545d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-0%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate77%40W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$2
crypto 7% $0
sports 3% −$29
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 52 -1.7% -11.1% 77% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

545d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses40 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage545d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 04 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 01 $46 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Mar 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $180 in February? Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? Feb 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? Jan 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 01 $9 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? Dec 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November? Dec 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Nov 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in October? Nov 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Oct 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? Aug 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 02 $33 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? Jul 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 07 $8 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 22 $5,926 −$6 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $4 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Mar 16 $23 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 15 $29 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 12 $23 $0 -0%
Dogecoin above $0.26 on February 28? Mar 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.25 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? Feb 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will $Trump FDV be $50b or more on Feb 1? Feb 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the Eastern Conference? Jan 22 $32 $0 -0%
Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Jan 21 $19 $0 -0%
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 05 $25 −$1 -2%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Jan 05 $44 −$3 -6%
Will Sevilla FC win La Liga? Jan 05 $23 −$8 -33%
Everton wins the Premier League? Jan 04 $34 −$9 -25%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win La Liga? Jan 04 $24 −$8 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $46 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $34 31d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $13 61d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $32 62d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $4 91d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $9 91d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $38 93d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? BUY No 100¢ $6 122d
Will Solana reach $180 in February? BUY No 100¢ $10 122d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? BUY No 100¢ $29 122d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $15 149d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $25 150d
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 181d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $9 182d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $29 182d
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? BUY No 100¢ $5 212d
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November? BUY No 100¢ $41 212d
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? BUY No 100¢ $6 241d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 242d
Will Solana reach $300 in October? BUY No 100¢ $29 242d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $9 272d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $14 272d
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? BUY No 100¢ $22 273d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $24 302d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $5 333d
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? BUY No 100¢ $14 333d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $27 334d
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 364d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 394d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.61 · official $45.61 (match) · 109 history records