Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:37:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

90
0x9008…09f0
weather · 1023 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$245 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$276 · open −$35
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$298
Realized+$276
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses344 / 640
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions39
Markets (closed)984 / 1023
Avg bet$6
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 39 History 984 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$72
14 days+$144
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $60 $54 −$6 (-10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+5%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 60¢ 55¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-9%)
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $10 $14 +$5 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Yes 23¢ 36¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+57%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Yes 62¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+61%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Yes 32¢ 36¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Yes 40¢ 44¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+9%)
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Yes 51¢ 96¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+87%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Yes 34¢ 26¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 14? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Yes 69¢ 71¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+24%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 54¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$4 +172%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$5 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$8 +189%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $52 +$18 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -18%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$2 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$2 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$5 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 11 $6 +$8 +124%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$8 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 +$17 +151%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 11 $3 +$5 +171%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$4 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$5 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$4 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$8 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$8 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 +$13 +210%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $32 +$15 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 11? Jun 10 $0 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$5 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$3 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$6 -59%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$2 -50%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$4 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 −$7 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 10 $4 +$15 +352%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$19 +182%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 10? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $13 −$6 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$6 +184%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $24 −$4 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 74% +$110
other 11% −$8
world 9% +$105
sports 3% −$10
crypto 1% −$24
culture 1% +$6
economics 0% +$68
politics 0% −$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 39¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? SELL Yes 80¢ $70 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 82¢ $37 6h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 41¢ $9 8h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? SELL Yes 35¢ $9 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 13h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $25 13h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 40¢ $6 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 182 -0.6% -10.1% 37% 35% -3.1%
≤30d 601 -4.3% -13.4% 32% 30% -7.1%
≤90d 984 +0.6% -9.0% 35% 32% -4.7%
all 984 +0.6% -9.0% 35% 32% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 32% -4.7%
10% -17.7% 30% -13.8%
15% -25.7% 27% -22.1%
20% -33.0% 25% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $298.13 · official $298.15 (match) · 2553 history records