Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:48:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9009…6261 crypto 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$396 (-1%) realized −$395 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate88%63W / 9L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$386per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$93
crypto 21% −$305
finance 7% +$6
sports 5% −$12
other 4% +$1
economics 2% +$1
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -2.0% -11.3% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 7 +0.7% -8.9% 86% 0% -7.9%
≤90d 13 +0.7% -8.9% 92% 0% -8.5%
all 72 -3.3% -12.5% 88% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 0% -10.8%
10% -20.9% 0% -19.3%
15% -28.5% 0% -27.1%
20% -35.5% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$64 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized−$395
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses63 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage213d
Avg bet$386
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $136 $135 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $43 −$2 -6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 21 $137 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $267 +$14 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 28 $129 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 27 $128 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $127 +$1 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 23 $242 +$2 +1%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 05 $125 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 22 $121 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 14 $121 +$1 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 11 $122 +$1 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $118 +$2 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $493 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 20? Mar 20 $12 −$4 -34%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 20 $8,363 +$17 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 21? Mar 18 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 15 $1,717 +$5 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 13 $1,267 −$9 -1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 04 $2,467 +$9 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 02 $417 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $311 −$151 -48%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $635 +$6 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 26 $426 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 24 $158 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 24 $639 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 22 $464 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 21 $470 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 20 $464 +$2 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 17 $155 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? Feb 14 $155 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? Feb 10 $154 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $313 −$3 -1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 09 $317 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026? Feb 08 $476 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 20? Jan 21 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 19? Jan 20 $125 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 18? Jan 19 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 17? Jan 18 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 16? Jan 17 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 15? Jan 16 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 13? Jan 14 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 12? Jan 13 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 11? Jan 12 $124 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jan 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 10? Jan 11 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 9? Jan 10 $55 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 8? Jan 09 $56 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 7? Jan 08 $56 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 6? Jan 07 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 5? Jan 06 $55 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $40 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $43 2h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $139 2h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $11 20d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 20d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $24 20d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $25 20d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $47 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $138 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $141 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $129 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 99¢ $129 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? BUY No 98¢ $128 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? SELL No 100¢ $9 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? SELL No 100¢ $119 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 99¢ $43 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 99¢ $84 26d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $127 28d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $126 44d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $97 46d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $29 46d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $125 53d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $117 53d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $116 57d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $122 60d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $121 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.99 · official $134.99 (match) · 420 history records