Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:14:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

90 0x900b…2a5e sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$1 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1per market

Trades / day4.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-9.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+0.5%	-9.1%	50%	50%	-8.4%
≤30d	2	+0.5%	-9.1%	50%	50%	-8.4%
≤90d	2	+0.5%	-9.1%	50%	50%	-8.4%
all	2	+0.5%	-9.1%	50%	50%	-8.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.1%	50%	-8.4%
10%	-17.8%	50%	-17.1%
15%	-25.7%	50%	-25.1%
20%	-33.0%	50%	-32.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.03 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$2

Realized+$1

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$1

Trades / day4.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Spain	54¢	56¢	$2	$2	+$0 (+3%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5)	Tunisia	63¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 14	$1	+$1	+101%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	54¢	$2	1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5)	BUY Tunisia	63¢	$1	1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Germany	49¢	$1	21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$1	21h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.06 · official $2.06 (match) · 5 history records