Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:52:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x900c…4096 crypto 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,044 (-11%) realized −$1,044 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%67W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$488
7 days−$488
14 days−$488
30 days−$957
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,450
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -9.5% -18.1% 76% 63% -29.3%
≤30d 83 -9.6% -18.2% 65% 55% -30.4%
≤90d 83 -9.6% -18.2% 65% 55% -30.4%
all 119 +5.6% -4.5% 56% 50% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 50% -24.5%
10% -13.6% 22% -31.7%
15% -22.0% 18% -38.3%
20% -29.6% 14% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$90 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,044
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses67 / 52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)119 / 119
History coverage112d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 119 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $254 −$135 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $253 +$48 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $254 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $253 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 239 history records