Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:36:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
90 0x900c…d4d8 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$232 (-8%) realized −$219 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$249per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$304now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$572
7 days−$572
14 days−$572
30 days−$586
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$585
sports 2% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -11.2% -19.7% 0% 0% -29.3%
≤30d 6 +1.1% -8.5% 17% 17% -29.4%
≤90d 6 +1.1% -8.5% 17% 17% -29.4%
all 6 +1.1% -8.5% 17% 17% -29.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 17% -29.4%
10% -17.2% 17% -36.2%
15% -25.2% 17% -42.3%
20% -32.6% 17% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$122 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$304
Realized−$219
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)6 / 12
History coverage16d
Avg bet$249
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $64 $66 +$2 (+4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $65 $58 −$7 (-11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-4%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $18 $14 −$4 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,779 −$540 -30%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $790 −$29 -4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $26 −$1 -6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$1 -5%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $37 −$37 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $15 +$23 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 18¢ $450 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 29¢ $760 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 41¢ $761 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $790 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 29¢ $789 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $1,020 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $24 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $24 4h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $19 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 47¢ $19 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 27h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $67 27h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $36 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $36 27h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 27h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 27h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 27h
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Chicago White Sox 59¢ $37 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 39¢ $15 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $303.88 · official $303.93 (match) · 21 history records