Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:10:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

90 0x900d…9448 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$281 (+39%) realized +$310 · open −$29

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +51% what you keep after slip

Net edge+51%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$181per market

Trades / day1.6pace

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$337now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+50.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+66.7%	+50.8%	100%	67%	+61.7%
≤30d	3	+66.7%	+50.8%	100%	67%	+61.7%
≤90d	3	+66.7%	+50.8%	100%	67%	+61.7%
all	3	+66.7%	+50.8%	100%	67%	+61.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+50.8%	67%	+61.7%
10%	+36.4%	67%	+46.2%
15%	+23.2%	67%	+32.1%
20%	+11.1%	33%	+19.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 81% · top 2 99% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +79% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +67% · $-wt +79% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$92 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$337

Realized+$310

Unrealized−$29

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage4d

Avg bet$181

Trades / day1.6

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	48¢	44¢	$366	$337	−$29 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$150	+$224	+149%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$101	+$49	+48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Jun 21	$98	+$3	+3%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	48¢	$373	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$374	25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	39¢	$150	28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$150	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	66¢	$101	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$101	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	BUY Up	95¢	$98	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $336.64 · official $336.64 (match) · 7 history records