Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:16:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
90 0x900e…01c6 sports 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$350 (+10%) realized +$348 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate69%50W / 22L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$112
7 days+$179
14 days+$310
30 days+$310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$246
crypto 13% +$61
other 13% +$50
world 0% +$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -9.2% -17.9% 64% 44% -3.2%
≤30d 64 -5.1% -14.2% 67% 47% -0.5%
≤90d 64 -5.1% -14.2% 67% 47% -0.5%
all 72 +14.8% +3.9% 69% 50% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.9% 50% +0.3%
10% -6.1% 35% -9.3%
15% -15.2% 29% -18.0%
20% -23.5% 22% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +67% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$348
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses50 / 22
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage237d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? No 27¢ 34¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $75 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $61 +$15 +26%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $5 +$1 +18%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 23 $20 +$10 +48%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 23 $10 +$8 +76%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $10 +$15 +146%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 23 $174 +$1 +0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally Jun 23 $30 +$5 +16%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Iryna Shymanovich Jun 23 $100 +$3 +3%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Talia Gibson vs Madison Keys Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 23 $62 −$2 -3%
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva Jun 23 $98 +$4 +4%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $150 +$5 +3%
Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on October 3 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2025-11-01? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the second most seats in Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2025-11-01? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parli Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 22 $35 −$11 -32%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Ne Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +62%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jan Choinski vs Alexei Popyrin Jun 22 $90 +$4 +4%
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 22 $40 +$19 +47%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Elias Ymer Jun 22 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $10 +$1 +7%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $28 +$8 +27%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 +$10 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$2 +12%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $8 +$7 +85%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $23 +$9 +42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm Jun 20 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $75 +$4 +5%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$10 +20%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $231 −$2 -1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$4 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 27¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 36¢ $5 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 84¢ $5 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Kimberly Birrell 67¢ $20 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina BUY Elina Svitolina 56¢ $10 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Zeynep Sonmez 40¢ $10 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 100¢ $74 7h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 100¢ $100 7h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally SELL Caty McNally 100¢ $35 7h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Talia Gibson vs Madison Keys SELL Talia Gibson $0 7h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Talia Gibson vs Madison Keys BUY Talia Gibson $3 7h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 86¢ $5 8h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 84¢ $10 8h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 87¢ $15 8h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Iryna Shymanovich SELL Iryna Shymanovich 88¢ $103 8h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Iryna Shymanovich BUY Iryna Shymanovich 78¢ $50 8h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Iryna Shymanovich BUY Iryna Shymanovich 93¢ $50 8h
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ann Li 11¢ $2 9h
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Ekaterina Alexandrova 87¢ $69 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.72 · official $20.72 (match) · 188 history records