Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:21:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
90 0x900e…be66 other 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$196 (-1%) realized −$196 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate68%62W / 29L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$399per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$160
14 days−$35
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -8.6% -17.3% 33% 0% -21.4%
≤30d 19 -2.5% -11.8% 79% 16% -8.4%
≤90d 33 -1.9% -11.2% 76% 12% -9.9%
all 91 -9.2% -17.9% 68% 16% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 16% -9.9%
10% -25.7% 7% -18.5%
15% -32.9% 4% -26.4%
20% -39.5% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$540) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$59 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$196
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses62 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage149d
Avg bet$399
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $97 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $514 −$94 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $610 −$70 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $472 +$76 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1,014 +$18 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $406 +$111 +27%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $224 −$103 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $451 +$14 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $485 +$9 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $402 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $483 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $461 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $317 +$37 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $451 −$25 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $428 +$25 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $418 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $368 +$32 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $645 +$15 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $373 +$7 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $303 +$23 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $348 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $314 +$23 +7%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 21 $333 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $372 −$42 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $62 −$18 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $1,054 −$243 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $386 +$12 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 11 $551 +$43 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $1,407 −$126 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 08 $681 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 06 $479 +$110 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $540 +$30 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $539 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $511 +$14 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Mar 23 $520 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 21 $405 +$73 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $744 +$24 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 18 $410 +$14 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 17 $397 +$13 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 17 $399 −$2 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 17 $540 −$258 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 17 $616 +$8 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 16 $588 +$11 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 14 $552 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 14 $245 −$30 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 14 $540 +$30 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $1,424 −$429 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $699 +$51 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $1,906 −$46 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Mar 11 $1,751 +$82 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $101 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $97 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $61 3d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $84 3d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $6 3d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $37 3d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $22 3d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $36 3d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $6 3d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $73 3d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $4 3d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $92 3d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $402 3d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $60 3d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $52 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $358 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $15 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $161 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $610 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $548 8d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $472 8d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $0 9d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $20 9d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $20 9d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $420 9d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $25 9d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $6 9d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $6 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 432 history records