Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:33:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9014…0cf1 other 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 717d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%53W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$26
other 30% +$3
world 11% +$2
crypto 8% +$2
tech 6% $0
sports 2% $0
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 4 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 5 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 57 -2.5% -11.8% 93% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 0% -10.1%
10% -20.2% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

717d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses53 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage717d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DeepSeek have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w Jun 18 $51 $0 +0%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15 Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 15 $38 +$1 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? Jun 15 $147 $0 +0%
Over $1M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 29 $210 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 16 $44 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 16 above $1.50? Feb 22 $45 $0 +0%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? Feb 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 Jan 31 $30 $0 +2%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? Jan 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4? Dec 07 $20 $0 +1%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $124,000 on October 7? Oct 08 $21 $0 +1%
Will Astronomer CEO Andy Byron sue Coldplay? Aug 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? Jul 02 $26 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 10? May 11 $36 $0 +1%
Will Nicolae Ciucă win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 18–25? Apr 23 $51 $0 +1%
Solana above $130 on March 21? Mar 22 $11 $0 +1%
Will egg prices be less than $4.50 in February? Mar 03 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $6000 by February 28 2025? Mar 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $68 +$1 +1%
Will Biden pardon SBF? Jan 21 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 3-Jan 10? Jan 09 $72 $0 +0%
Is John McAfee alive? Jan 06 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Jan 06 $16 $0 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024? Jan 06 $20 $0 +1%
Ethena crash in 2024? Jan 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Dec 02 $71 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet 60 or more times Nov 15-22? Nov 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet 50 or more times Nov 8-15? Nov 18 $40 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times November 1-8? Nov 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election? Nov 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet 80-89 times Nov 1-8? Nov 07 $40 −$30 -75%
Will Kamala Harris drop out of presidential race? Nov 07 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times November 1-8? Nov 07 $43 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? Nov 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100-124 times October 18-25? Oct 28 $43 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times October 4-11? Oct 20 $42 $0 +0%
Scroll airdrop by September 30? Oct 02 $27 +$1 +2%
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee? Sep 01 $129 +$1 +0%
Trump posts less than 5 times on X? Aug 30 $129 $0 +0%
Trump posts 50-99 times on X? Aug 25 $128 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet 9 times this week? Aug 22 $128 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet 5 times this week? Aug 18 $128 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 50 or more times this week? Aug 18 $128 $0 +0%
Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC? Aug 15 $28 $0 +0%
USA wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 60 times? Aug 12 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DeepSeek have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $2 3d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $3 3d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $2 3d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $2 3d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $2 3d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $3 3d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $3 3d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $2 3d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $2 3d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $2 3d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.92 · official $50.92 (match) · 156 history records