Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:44:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9016…3cec weather 275 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$118 (-1%) realized −$118 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate58%158W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$31
14 days−$29
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$117
weather 31% −$37
sports 3% −$27
other 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +3.0% -6.9% 70% 56% -4.5%
≤30d 115 -2.4% -11.7% 60% 46% -10.8%
≤90d 174 -0.9% -10.3% 61% 46% -12.5%
all 274 +1.9% -7.8% 58% 42% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 42% -11.5%
10% -16.6% 28% -20.0%
15% -24.7% 22% -27.7%
20% -32.1% 17% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$118
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses158 / 116
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)274 / 275
History coverage138d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 274 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 28? No 85¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $22 +$6 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $25 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 28? Jun 28 $24 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 27? Jun 27 $25 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 27? Jun 27 $22 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C or higher on June 26 Jun 26 $25 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $22 −$6 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $25 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 25? Jun 25 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $28 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $20 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $20 −$19 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25? Jun 25 $17 −$6 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 24? Jun 24 $20 +$5 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 24? Jun 24 $21 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $15 +$6 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 24? Jun 24 $26 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 23? Jun 24 $23 +$4 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $13 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $4 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 22? Jun 23 $15 +$4 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on June Jun 22 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 22? Jun 22 $46 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $25 +$5 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $20 −$5 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 21? Jun 21 $42 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $46 −$3 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $43 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $30 −$7 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $45 −$23 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $38 +$7 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $32 +$6 +17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 19 $7 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $26 +$7 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $24 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? Jun 18 $29 +$4 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $25 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $24 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 +$8 +47%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 −$5 -36%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $32 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $28 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $26 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 85¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $28 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 28? BUY No 79¢ $22 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 28? SELL No 75¢ $23 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 28? BUY No 78¢ $24 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 89¢ $25 14h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $28 20h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 27? BUY No 90¢ $25 32h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 27? SELL No 99¢ $25 33h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 27? BUY No 87¢ $22 39h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C or higher on June 26 SELL No 100¢ $28 47h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C or higher on June 26 BUY No 91¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 26? SELL No 66¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 26? SELL No 65¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $28 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 26? BUY No 88¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 26? BUY No 86¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26? BUY No 89¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 25? SELL No 90¢ $27 3d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 25? BUY No 86¢ $26 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $32 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? SELL No 76¢ $19 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? BUY No 80¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 25? SELL No 5¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 79¢ $14 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 78¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25? SELL No 52¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? BUY No 87¢ $11 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25? BUY No 80¢ $17 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.96 · official $1.96 (match) · 584 history records