Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:44:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
90 0x901b…59ef crypto 1019 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,387 (-3%) realized −$1,368 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%371W / 644L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day34.5pace
Fees−$349est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 68d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$4,010
sports 26% −$816
other 0% −$128
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +0.1% -9.4% 38% 38% -11.3%
≤30d 126 -13.3% -21.6% 35% 34% -36.6%
≤90d 1015 -10.8% -19.3% 37% 36% -19.1%
all 1015 -10.8% -19.3% 37% 36% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 36% -19.1%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 35% -26.8%
15% -34.0% 34% -33.9%
20% -40.5% 32% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$40 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$1,368
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses371 / 644
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$349
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1015 / 1019
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$47
Trades / day34.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1015 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Marco Trungelliti 17¢ 20¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+23%)
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Alpha Dominion Nation 11¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Millennium Esports - Map 2 Wi Jun 29 $5 +$10 +205%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challeng Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 28 $15 −$10 -65%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $3 −$3 -97%
ITF Brussels: Dylan Dietrich vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $5 +$13 +249%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series P Jun 28 $5 +$15 +291%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Branko Djuric vs Andrea De Marchi Jun 28 $10 +$10 +99%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Meiqi Guo vs Evialina Laskevich Jun 28 $10 +$2 +20%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Nina Radovanovic Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
ITF Galati: Giulia Safina Popa vs Chiara Fornasieri Jun 28 $36 −$13 -36%
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Texas Super Kings Jun 28 $8 +$21 +255%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 28 $11 −$5 -41%
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $22 +$11 +48%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 27 $10 +$13 +128%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $13 +$11 +85%
ITF Kamen: Valentina Ivanov vs Eva Marie Voracek Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 19 $61 +$25 +41%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $53 +$26 +50%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 19 $10 +$18 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm SELL Marco Trungelliti 19¢ $50 37m
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm BUY Marco Trungelliti 13¢ $32 40m
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm BUY Marco Trungelliti 19¢ $5 44m
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm BUY Marco Trungelliti 29¢ $5 47m
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm BUY Marco Trungelliti 39¢ $5 48m
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm BUY Marco Trungelliti 48¢ $5 49m
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm SELL Marco Trungelliti 52¢ $52 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm BUY Marco Trungelliti 24¢ $18 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Luca Van Assche 10¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - Un BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 7¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - Un BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 22¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - Un BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 26¢ $5 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm BUY Marco Trungelliti 19¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Millennium Esports - Map 2 Wi SELL Millennium Esports 88¢ $16 3h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Millennium Esports - Map 2 Wi BUY Millennium Esports 28¢ $5 4h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 17¢ $5 19h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 23¢ $5 19h
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challeng BUY Donstu Esports 10¢ $5 20h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Sharks 8¢ $5 21h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Sharks 23¢ $5 21h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs SELL ECHO 48¢ $9 21h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY ECHO 26¢ $5 21h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner BUY ECHO 9¢ $3 22h
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 13¢ $5 23h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner SELL ECHO 100¢ $18 23h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner BUY ECHO 28¢ $5 23h
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series P SELL Entropy 100¢ $20 23h
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series P BUY Entropy 25¢ $5 24h
ITF Brussels: Dylan Dietrich vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Dylan Dietrich 2¢ $4 24h
ITF Brussels: Dylan Dietrich vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Dylan Dietrich 7¢ $10 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.96 · official $6.96 (match) · 3500 history records