Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:49:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x901d…b985 crypto 831 markets active 1h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$260 (-4%) realized −$260 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%795W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$141
7 days−$173
14 days−$267
30 days−$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$49
other 3% −$229
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -4.2% -13.3% 5% 5% -41.6%
≤30d 26 -21.6% -29.1% 4% 4% -44.2%
≤90d 26 -21.6% -29.1% 4% 4% -44.2%
all 831 -0.9% -10.4% 96% 0% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -13.3%
10% -19.0% 0% -21.6%
15% -26.8% 0% -29.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$12 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$260
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses795 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)831 / 831
History coverage264d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 831 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET Jun 27 $33 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9AM ET Jun 26 $24 −$6 -26%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $217 −$217 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $8 +$92 +1188%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$2 -42%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6PM ET Jun 23 $142 −$14 -10%
XRP Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $30 −$4 -12%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$1 -37%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $96 −$17 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$11 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$5 -20%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jan 07 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jan 06 $9 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jan 06 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jan 06 $7 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - January 6, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jan 06 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jan 06 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jan 06 $8 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - January 6, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jan 06 $8 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jan 06 $8 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jan 06 $7 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 6, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jan 06 $7 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jan 06 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jan 06 $8 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - January 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 06 $8 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 06 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jan 06 $7 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jan 06 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 06 $9 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - January 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 06 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 06 $7 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 06 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 06 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jan 06 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 06 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $17 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $6 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $152 39h
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 3¢ $2 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 66¢ $4 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 4¢ $2 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $127 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $15 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3d
XRP Up or Down on June 23? BUY Up 2¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 2¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1727 history records