Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:46:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
90 0x901d…507a sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$345 (+12%) realized +$540 · open −$195
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%9W / 4L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$679now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$309
other 42% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +19.7% +8.3% 69% 69% +13.8%
≤30d 13 +19.7% +8.3% 69% 69% +13.8%
≤90d 13 +19.7% +8.3% 69% 69% +13.8%
all 13 +19.7% +8.3% 69% 69% +13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.3% 69% +13.8%
10% -2.1% 62% +2.9%
15% -11.6% 38% -7.1%
20% -20.2% 31% -16.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$19 · ×3.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.52 per $1 lost it wins $7.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$679
Realized+$540
Unrealized−$195
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Korea Republic to win the second half? Yes 52¢ 40¢ $874 $679 −$195 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 25 $38 +$29 +76%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $676 +$144 +21%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $74 −$36 -48%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $289 +$66 +23%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $207 +$115 +55%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $141 −$7 -5%
Colombia to win the second half? Jun 24 $209 +$146 +70%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $168 +$41 +24%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 23 $70 +$20 +29%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $35 −$34 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $25 +$10 +38%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 $0 -4%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $14 +$11 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Korea Republic to win the second half? BUY Yes 52¢ $785 50m
Korea Republic to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 1h
Brazil to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 96¢ $820 2h
Brazil to win the second half? BUY Yes 56¢ $38 2h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 33¢ $38 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $676 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $354 2h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $322 3h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $289 3h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $74 13h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $73 15h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $134 17h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $134 17h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $141 17h
Colombia to win the second half? SELL Yes 93¢ $90 22h
Colombia to win the second half? SELL Yes 91¢ $265 22h
Colombia to win the second half? BUY Yes 53¢ $209 25h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $209 25h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $168 25h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 77¢ $70 31h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $35 43h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $35 44h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $25 46h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) SELL Algeria 39¢ $10 46h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 39¢ $10 47h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $679.00 · official $695.77 · 31 history records