Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:45:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x901f…b8b0 sports 445 markets active 0h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$471 (+1%) realized +$430 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%231W / 204L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$107est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$167
14 days+$227
30 days−$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$276
other 42% +$975
world 1% −$14
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +2.9% -6.9% 42% 42% +5.7%
≤30d 118 -12.5% -20.9% 44% 43% -14.8%
≤90d 218 -2.9% -12.1% 54% 51% -10.5%
all 435 -0.3% -9.8% 53% 51% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 51% -7.8%
10% -18.4% 46% -16.6%
15% -26.3% 37% -24.7%
20% -33.5% 24% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$40 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized+$430
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses231 / 204
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$107
Open positions3
Markets (closed)435 / 445
History coverage232d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 435 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $81 $88 +$7 (+9%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 50¢ 100¢ $30 $60 +$30 (+100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Spirit 44¢ 50¢ $22 $25 +$3 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $23 +$29 +124%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $26 −$3 -12%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $33 −$32 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $89 +$58 +65%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $34 +$16 +48%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $53 +$49 +93%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $40 −$21 -53%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $34 +$93 +276%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $64 −$63 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will A Jun 17 $76 +$163 +216%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $29 −$18 -62%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $25 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $21 −$1 -4%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $17 +$19 +109%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $76 +$49 +65%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $19 +$19 +101%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $47 +$25 +53%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $56 +$25 +46%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $38 −$15 -38%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 $0 -3%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $12 −$1 -9%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $36 +$15 +42%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $55 +$47 +86%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $45 +$16 +36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $31 +$34 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $18 +$13 +73%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $37 +$16 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $39 +$16 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $49 −$49 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $48 −$47 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $21 +$17 +79%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $83 −$64 -76%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $45 −$45 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $4 +$3 +90%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $19 −$19 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $19 +$10 +50%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $20 +$11 +55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $35 +$11 +30%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $17 +$10 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 44¢ $22 7m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 44¢ $23 3h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $23 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 39¢ $14 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 47¢ $25 5h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $26 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O BUY 25¢ $34 6h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $33 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 68¢ $59 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 39¢ $21 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $68 27h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AN BUY 20¢ $28 30h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 67¢ $34 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both T BUY 37¢ $41 47h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 44¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 60¢ $27 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 35¢ $17 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 33¢ $14 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 42¢ $25 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score AND Will C BUY 29¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 24¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 57¢ $26 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 26¢ $34 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $64 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $83 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 16¢ $11 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $29 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will A BUY 31¢ $76 4d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.55 · official $206.55 · 1113 history records