Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:07:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
90 0x901f…2344 other 143 markets active 0h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%51W / 90L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$4
other 26% +$2
politics 20% +$1
sports 13% −$1
economics 4% $0
crypto 2% +$4
finance 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 43% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 23 +0.2% -9.3% 39% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 80 +1.9% -7.8% 34% 2% -9.4%
all 141 +1.2% -8.4% 36% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 4% -9.3%
10% -17.2% 2% -18.0%
15% -25.2% 1% -25.9%
20% -32.5% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses51 / 90
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)141 / 143
History coverage447d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+37%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $115 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $52 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $52 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $81 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $91 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $261 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $56 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $51 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $60 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $88 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $100 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $53 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $52 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $4 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 25 $78 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $149 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $76 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $55 +$2 +4%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $49 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $14 +$1 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 18 $49 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $49 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $4 −$1 -24%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $49 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $98 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $103 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $52 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $98 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $258 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $200 +$1 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $72 −$1 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $49 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $49 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 13 $49 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $48 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $67 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $58 5m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $57 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $17 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $40 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $57 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $52 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $16 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $36 33h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $52 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $52 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $52 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $11 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $40 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $57 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $57 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $52 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $11 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $52 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $37 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $14 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $14 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $26 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $41 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $51 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $51 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 41¢ $56 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 41¢ $56 9d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $20 9d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.17 · official $0.00 · 522 history records