Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:30:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9020…c77f crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate53%10W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -4.4% -13.5% 53% 11% -9.0%
≤30d 19 -4.4% -13.5% 53% 11% -9.0%
≤90d 19 -4.4% -13.5% 53% 11% -9.0%
all 19 -4.4% -13.5% 53% 11% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 11% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 5% -17.7%
15% -29.4% 0% -25.7%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 24 $41 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 24 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 23 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $51 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records