Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:05:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
90 0x9022…b6bc crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$533 (-41%) realized −$533 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$28
14 days−$515
30 days−$625
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$487
crypto 27% −$138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -8.7% -17.4% 57% 57% -20.6%
≤30d 10 -21.4% -28.9% 50% 50% -53.9%
≤90d 10 -21.4% -28.9% 50% 50% -53.9%
all 10 -21.4% -28.9% 50% 50% -53.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 50% -53.9%
10% -35.7% 50% -58.3%
15% -41.9% 50% -62.3%
20% -47.6% 30% -66.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$169 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$533
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage20d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 23 $15 +$11 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $57 +$42 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$11 +42%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $650 −$632 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $305 +$144 +47%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $114 −$110 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 11h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 10d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 10d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 10d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 10d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 10d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 10d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 10d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 10d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 10d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 10d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 5¢ $41 10d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 8¢ $46 10d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 9¢ $154 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 71¢ $449 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $305 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $114 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records