Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:40:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9024…ecbc crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7 (-10%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -23.4% -30.7% 40% 40% -40.9%
≤30d 19 -20.5% -28.1% 42% 42% -27.5%
≤90d 19 -20.5% -28.1% 42% 42% -27.5%
all 19 -20.5% -28.1% 42% 42% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 42% -27.5%
10% -35.0% 42% -34.5%
15% -41.2% 42% -40.8%
20% -47.0% 37% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage13d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 04 $4 +$3 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 04 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 04 $3 +$5 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 02 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 02 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 02 $4 +$6 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $0 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $8 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $6 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $10 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records