Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:39:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
90 0x9026…bb6c other 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+2%) realized +$31 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate61%59W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$7
14 days+$18
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% +$48
tech 31% −$63
crypto 30% +$36
finance 4% +$11
sports 1% −$2
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -19.6% -27.3% 55% 55% -29.1%
≤30d 74 -10.8% -19.3% 55% 55% +8.8%
≤90d 74 -10.8% -19.3% 55% 55% +8.8%
all 97 -8.9% -17.5% 61% 47% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 47% -7.0%
10% -25.4% 36% -15.9%
15% -32.6% 31% -24.1%
20% -39.2% 20% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses59 / 38
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)97 / 99
History coverage109d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 $0 +16%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +67%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 $0 +16%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 $0 +20%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 $0 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 $0 +40%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 $0 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 $0 +19%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 $0 +36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 $0 +20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +50%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $1 $0 +46%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +119%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +46%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +60%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +70%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $1 $0 +36%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 $0 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +38%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 32h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 33h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 33h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 33h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 5d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $1 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.04 · official $104.04 (match) · 177 history records