Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:55:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9029…7e72 politics 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 697d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%2W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 94% −$18
other 4% −$1
sports 1% $0
world 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 103 -6.3% -15.2% 2% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -23.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

697d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 103
History coverage697d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $58 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $58 $0 -0%
Will FlyQuest win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $58 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $58 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $58 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $59 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $59 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Mar 27 $59 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $59 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $59 $0 +0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $59 $0 -0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by March 15? Mar 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $59 $0 +0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 07 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $60 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 26 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division? Feb 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will DeWayne Davis win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? Nov 25 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ja Morant lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will another player be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Matthew Whitaker be Trump's Attorney General? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Taylor Swift pregnant in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Damson Idris announced as next James Bond? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Richardson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mike Carey be appointed as the next Ohio senator? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the US ban sharing deepfake nudes in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Israel parliament dissolves in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the NFC East? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2 Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Dolphins win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 21 $0 $0 -0%
Will Sherrod Brown be the next DNC chair? Dec 21 $1 $0 -3%
Will another party win the most seats in the next German election? Dec 21 $1 $0 -0%
GOP wins popular vote by 2-3%? Dec 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will the November 2024 temperature increase be greater than 1.39°C? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Palin be a member of the Trump administration? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Jalen Williams win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 09 $0 $0 -2%
Will Nebraska win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $4 $0 -0%
Will 'The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess' win Album of the Year? Nov 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will Jared Goff win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 25 $1 $0 -1%
Will CeeDee Lamb win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 25 $0 $0 -0%
Will Caleb Williams be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Nov 18 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 13h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 3d
Will FlyQuest win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 24d
Will FlyQuest win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 24d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $58 30d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 31d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 42d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 43d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 49d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 49d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $59 72d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $59 72d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $59 82d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 83d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar SELL No 100¢ $59 91d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar BUY No 100¢ $59 91d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $59 99d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $59 100d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 102d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 102d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 103d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 104d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by March 15? SELL No 100¢ $59 107d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by March 15? BUY No 100¢ $8 107d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by March 15? BUY No 100¢ $6 107d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by March 15? BUY No 100¢ $46 107d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 109d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 228 history records