Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:09:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9029…f0fc world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 299d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$9
politics 21% $0
other 15% +$1
finance 6% $0
crypto 5% +$1
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.3% -12.5% 12% 0% -11.8%
≤30d 8 -3.3% -12.5% 12% 0% -11.8%
≤90d 8 -3.3% -12.5% 12% 0% -11.8%
all 29 -0.7% -10.2% 45% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -10.5%
10% -18.8% 0% -19.1%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.9%
20% -33.8% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

299d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage299d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $43 −$8 -18%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $5 $0 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $48 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $84 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $41 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $7 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Dec 02 $31 +$1 +3%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $31 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 07 $33 $0 +1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 23 to September 30, Sep 28 $5 $0 +6%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 27 $6 $0 +1%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 22 $42 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 21 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 20 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 20 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $39 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $35 7h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $43 9h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 19h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $48 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $48 29h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $19 41h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $11 41h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 43h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 47h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $43 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $23 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $21 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $42 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $27 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $13 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $29 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $12 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $33 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $33 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $2 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $39 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $3 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $10 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $2 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $32 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.81 · official $38.81 (match) · 132 history records