Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:05:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

90
0x902c…0a0d
world · 72 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$22 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$22 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses18 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage307d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 1 History 71 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$8
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $3 $0 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $94 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $276 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $98 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $98 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $98 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $178 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $82 −$9 -10%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $64 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $57 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $44 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $56 +$2 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $177 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $95 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $146 +$1 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $95 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $102 +$2 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $5 $0 -7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $9 +$3 +36%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $103 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 24 $12 −$1 -6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $64 −$8 -12%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 22 $100 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $108 +$2 +2%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $103 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $571 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $75 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $105 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $570 +$1 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $570 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $126 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 21 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 16 $584 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $31 −$12 -39%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $541 +$1 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Dec 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August? Aug 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Aug 16 $39 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Aug 16 $42 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 15 $47 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 15 $7 $0 -3%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 14 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 48% −$22
other 24% −$1
sports 12% +$1
politics 11% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 25¢ $3 49m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $3 2h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $35 3h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $14 3h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $49 6h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 17h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $57 17h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $89 21h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $98 26h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $98 28h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $7 34h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $82 34h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $14 37h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $75 37h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $98 40h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $98 40h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $98 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $98 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 35¢ $51 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 35¢ $48 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 35¢ $98 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $89 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $48 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $41 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $64 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $94 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $86 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $4 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $90 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.6% -11.0% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 25 -0.0% -9.5% 28% 4% -9.9%
≤90d 36 +17.4% +6.2% 31% 6% -9.8%
all 71 +8.8% -1.6% 25% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 3% -9.8%
10% -11.0% 3% -18.4%
15% -19.6% 3% -26.3%
20% -27.5% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.43 · official $0.00 (match) · 255 history records