Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:50:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
90 0x9032…b5c3 world 88 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,270 (+18%) realized +$2,976 · open +$3,294
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate55%35W / 29L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$388per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$14,360now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$793
7 days+$1,327
14 days+$2,421
30 days+$2,490
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$4,716
politics 15% +$377
crypto 15% +$313
other 11% +$485
tech 1% +$15
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +10.5% -0.0% 58% 45% +5.1%
≤30d 58 +16.7% +5.6% 55% 41% +4.5%
≤90d 64 +13.4% +2.6% 55% 41% +4.7%
all 64 +13.4% +2.6% 55% 41% +4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.6% 41% +4.7%
10% -7.2% 23% -5.3%
15% -16.2% 20% -14.5%
20% -24.4% 16% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$28 · ×3.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.71 per $1 lost it wins $4.71
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$14,360
Realized+$2,976
Unrealized+$3,294
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses35 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions25
Markets (closed)64 / 88
History coverage37d
Avg bet$388
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 49¢ 100¢ $2,787 $5,639 +$2,852 (+102%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 75¢ 88¢ $2,168 $2,532 +$364 (+17%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,454 $1,488 +$34 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $905 $924 +$19 (+2%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $700 $792 +$92 (+13%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 94¢ $250 $472 +$222 (+89%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 45¢ 42¢ $446 $425 −$21 (-5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $364 $385 +$21 (+6%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 54¢ 64¢ $216 $258 +$42 (+19%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $264 $255 −$9 (-3%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $248 $236 −$11 (-5%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 72¢ 86¢ $175 $210 +$35 (+20%)
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Yes 74¢ 82¢ $163 $180 +$18 (+11%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? No 30¢ 40¢ $102 $138 +$36 (+35%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 48¢ 52¢ $120 $131 +$11 (+9%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 12¢ 20¢ $74 $117 +$43 (+58%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Yes 35¢ 26¢ $70 $53 −$17 (-24%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 6¢ $250 $28 −$222 (-89%)
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Yes 82¢ 94¢ $22 $25 +$3 (+15%)
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? Yes 42¢ 63¢ $10 $16 +$5 (+51%)
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 7¢ 13¢ $7 $13 +$6 (+80%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% and 9%? Yes 14¢ 26¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+82%)
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No 56¢ 44¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-21%)
Will Lara Bird win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election? Yes 77¢ 94¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+22%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? No 6¢ 3¢ $14 $7 −$7 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $483 −$89 -18%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 17 $45 −$15 -33%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 16 $84 +$56 +67%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 16 $26 −$8 -31%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $114 +$43 +38%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $1,217 +$634 +52%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $272 +$35 +13%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 16 $203 −$24 -12%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,100 +$160 +15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $700 +$1 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $13 +$2 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $489 −$127 -26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $7 −$6 -86%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $172 −$16 -10%
Will Trump announce Pete Hoekstra as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $184 +$2 +1%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $718 −$45 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $713 +$104 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $329 +$69 +21%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 11 $88 +$10 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 11 $195 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $50 +$10 +20%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $40 +$1 +3%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $28 +$27 +96%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 10 $18 −$4 -22%
Will David Flippo be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 10 $15 +$17 +109%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 10 $41 +$6 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $160 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $25 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $679 +$482 +71%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $374 −$14 -4%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $67 +$10 +16%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $293 +$107 +36%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Jun 09 $15 +$88 +579%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $496 +$2 +0%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 09 $94 −$4 -5%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $225 +$79 +35%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $45 −$25 -56%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $275 +$62 +23%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $95 −$29 -30%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $22 +$3 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 05 $415 −$134 -32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $18 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $4,552 +$447 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 03 $30 −$6 -20%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $234 +$514 +220%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 03 $20 +$37 +188%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $48 −$21 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY No 6¢ $14 29m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $187 1h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $30 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 35¢ $70 7h
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 11h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 45¢ $90 12h
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? SELL Yes 82¢ $133 12h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 24¢ $18 12h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 33¢ $5 13h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 35¢ $18 13h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 35¢ $2 13h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 35¢ $2 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,189 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $146 14h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 43¢ $21 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $61 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $63 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $420 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 18h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $62 20h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $120 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 22h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $2 22h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $2 22h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 53¢ $80 24h
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $3 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $1,185 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $95 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $114 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,360.43 · official $14,360.20 (match) · 562 history records