Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:19:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
90 0x9035…fdfd politics 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 556d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%80W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% −$1
crypto 35% −$3
sports 16% −$1
other 6% +$1
world 3% +$1
weather 2% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 17 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 84 +0.5% -9.1% 95% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.5%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

556d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses80 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)84 / 87
History coverage556d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $78 $78 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 31? Jun 28 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 22? May 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 11-17? May 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on May 23? May 28 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on May 14? May 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of May 4 2026? May 12 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 5? May 12 $59 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 21? May 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 13°C on April 20? May 04 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 04 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 16? Apr 19 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on April 7? Apr 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 7? Apr 15 $64 +$1 +1%
Will BNB reach $700 in March? Apr 07 $38 $0 +0%
Will EdgeX launch a token by June 30, 2026? Apr 07 $73 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$1.00 on the final day of trading of th Mar 31 $42 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 03 $115 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Feb 03 $9 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? Feb 03 $39 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 03 $66 +$1 +1%
Will Meteora launch a token in 2025? Jan 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Google be the most valuable company on October 31? Jan 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,800 on October 14? Oct 16 $7 $0 +0%
Successful Houthi attack on shipping by October 15? Oct 16 $47 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 43.0% on May 16? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Trump in Russia on Victory Day May 9? May 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden? May 06 $9 $0 +0%
X allowed to operate in China before May? May 06 $9 $0 +0%
Trump severs ties with Ukraine before May? May 06 $37 $0 +0%
Trump declassifies 9/11 files in first 100 days? May 06 $51 $0 +0%
Was JFK assassinated by a foreign government? Apr 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek be #1 model before April? Apr 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will Abdullah Öcalan be freed before April? Apr 07 $6 $0 +0%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before April? Apr 07 $7 $0 +0%
Trump uses a recess appointment for Cabinet? Apr 07 $9 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before April? Apr 07 $9 $0 +0%
RFK's daughter-in-law picked as CIA deputy director? Apr 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? Apr 07 $11 $0 +1%
PKK removed from U.S. terror list before April? Apr 07 $14 $0 +0%
Boeing at fault for South Korea plane crash? Apr 07 $19 $0 +0%
Trump orders U.S. prisoners to El Salvador before April? Apr 07 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump sign 10-14 executive orders in March? Mar 22 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? Mar 22 $9 $0 +0%
Fact Check: Did the U.S. hit Iranian spy ship? Mar 22 $16 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? Mar 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 22 $30 $0 +1%
Will Trump cut Ukraine off from Starlink? Mar 20 $10 $0 +1%
Price of eggs goes up in Trump's first month? Mar 15 $3 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? BUY No 100¢ $78 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $54 31d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $22 37d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $12 37d
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $20 47d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $26 47d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $59 55d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of May 4 2026? BUY No 97¢ $15 55d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $35 55d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $23 70d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 13°C on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $36 70d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $45 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $49 73d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 7? BUY No 99¢ $64 82d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $51 82d
Will BNB reach $700 in March? BUY No 100¢ $38 89d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$1.00 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 100¢ $42 100d
Will EdgeX launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $73 100d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? BUY No 100¢ $115 126d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 145d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $39 152d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $66 152d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $9 175d
Will Meteora launch a token in 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 251d
Will Google be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $6 256d
Successful Houthi attack on shipping by October 15? BUY No 100¢ $47 256d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,800 on October 14? BUY No 100¢ $7 257d
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 43.0% on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 410d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.87 · official $103.87 (match) · 179 history records