Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:59:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
90 0x903a…a46a sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 232d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-26%) realized −$40 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 232d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-50.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -58.2% -62.2% 20% 20% -71.8%
≤90d 5 -58.2% -62.2% 20% 20% -71.8%
all 8 -45.5% -50.7% 25% 25% -40.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.7% 25% -40.0%
10% -55.4% 25% -45.8%
15% -59.7% 25% -51.0%
20% -63.7% 25% -55.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$11 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage232d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) T1 70¢ 86¢ $29 $35 +$7 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $28 −$28 -99%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $19 +$24 +127%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 09 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) BUY T1 70¢ $29 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 72¢ $28 14d
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) BUY Top Esports 51¢ $10 14d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 14d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 49¢ $10 14d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 14d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 100¢ $43 231d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 44¢ $19 231d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 37¢ $5 231d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 42¢ $5 231d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.45 · official $36.89 · 12 history records