Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:22:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x903c…98f7 crypto 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$49 (-4%) realized +$14 · open −$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%34W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$25
14 days−$4
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$2
politics 21% −$63
other 11% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -30.1% -36.8% 33% 22% -30.0%
≤30d 74 -8.6% -17.3% 46% 43% -12.6%
≤90d 74 -8.6% -17.3% 46% 43% -12.6%
all 74 -8.6% -17.3% 46% 43% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 43% -12.6%
10% -25.3% 38% -21.0%
15% -32.5% 36% -28.6%
20% -39.1% 31% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses34 / 40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage25d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $230 $167 −$63 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $21 +$3 +15%
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Will France be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Jun 20 $31 −$17 -55%
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 20 $10 $0 -1%
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 18 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $15 −$4 -27%
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 10 $20 −$9 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$9 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 08 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 07 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 07 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$20 +382%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 07 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 07 $11 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 07 $16 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$3 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $52 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $24 1h
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI SELL Yes 25¢ $17 1h
Will France be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 1h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 11¢ $23 43h
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 43h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $11 43h
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 43h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 10d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 10d
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $12 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $14 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.62 · official $166.62 (match) · 183 history records