Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:49:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x903d…84a1 crypto 353 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$495 (-8%) realized −$495 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%158W / 195L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days−$63
14 days−$63
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$768
sports 4% +$14
other 4% −$73
politics 1% +$7
world 0% −$9
tech 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -18.0% -25.8% 50% 50% -20.7%
≤30d 12 -18.0% -25.8% 50% 50% -20.7%
≤90d 33 -18.0% -25.8% 45% 45% -19.6%
all 353 -14.4% -22.5% 45% 38% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 38% -22.8%
10% -30.0% 33% -30.2%
15% -36.7% 27% -37.0%
20% -42.9% 22% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$14 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$495
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses158 / 195
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)353 / 353
History coverage119d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 353 Trades
no open positions (160 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $62 +$29 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $58 −$56 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$25 +95%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $91 +$87 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$29 +80%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $40 +$9 +23%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 17 $10 +$13 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 17 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 17 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 17 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 17 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 17 $27 +$28 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 17 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 17 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 17 $15 +$15 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 17 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 17 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 17 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 17 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 08 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 08 $5 +$12 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 07 $26 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 07 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 07 $25 +$21 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 07 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 07 $43 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 07 $35 −$12 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Mar 07 $11 +$12 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 05 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 05 $15 +$12 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 05 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 05 $32 +$19 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1277 history records