Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:18:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
90 0x9041…ddba other 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$597 (+12%) realized +$429 · open +$168
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%34W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$332now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$877
7 days+$1,307
14 days+$1,198
30 days+$511
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$969
sports 16% −$135
world 5% +$48
crypto 4% −$93
finance 2% −$47
politics 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +23.4% +11.7% 59% 59% +29.1%
≤30d 37 +6.7% -3.4% 51% 51% +2.5%
≤90d 62 -26.8% -33.8% 34% 34% -2.5%
all 81 -4.2% -13.3% 42% 41% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 41% +1.1%
10% -21.6% 38% -8.5%
15% -29.2% 37% -17.4%
20% -36.1% 33% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$41 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$332
Realized+$429
Unrealized+$168
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses34 / 47
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)81 / 85
History coverage115d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Yes 28¢ 72¢ $100 $257 +$157 (+157%)
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals Yes 29¢ 30¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 19¢ $24 $34 +$10 (+43%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals Jun 23 $51 +$87 +172%
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals Jun 23 $50 −$49 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $54 +$102 +188%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 23 $56 +$89 +158%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 23 $44 −$44 -98%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 23 $92 −$92 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $202 +$353 +175%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $166 +$161 +97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $154 +$210 +136%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $97 +$57 +60%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $98 −$96 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $100 +$98 +97%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 21 $135 −$133 -98%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $101 +$77 +76%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $47 +$15 +32%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $51 +$42 +83%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $32 −$31 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $120 −$119 -99%
Enner Valencia: 2+ goals Jun 20 $30 −$29 -98%
Gonzalo Plata: 1+ goals Jun 20 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $129 +$56 +44%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $46 −$46 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $97 +$77 +79%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $291 +$205 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $360 +$201 +56%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $29 −$28 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $80 −$79 -99%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $50 +$59 +119%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $36 +$74 +206%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $24 −$23 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $178 +$97 +55%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $34 +$49 +146%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $74 −$72 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $502 −$493 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $61 −$60 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $136 −$134 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $91 −$89 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $84 +$139 +165%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 12 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $19 +$16 +86%
Cavaliers vs. Warriors Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by March 7? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $36 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1h
Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $51 14h
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $50 14h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $44 15h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $56 16h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $54 16h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $92 20h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $166 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $99 26h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $55 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $97 43h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $202 43h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $98 46h
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $135 46h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 75¢ $47 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $51 2d
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $101 2d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $100 2d
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $32 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 65¢ $120 2d
Enner Valencia: 2+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $30 2d
Gonzalo Plata: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $36 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $129 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 44¢ $46 2d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $97 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $291 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 76¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 76¢ $14 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 76¢ $374 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $332.15 · official $332.15 (match) · 253 history records