Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:50:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
90 0x9043…af14 sports 488 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$152 (+2%) realized +$143 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%245W / 240L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$8
other 45% +$142
culture 0% −$14
crypto 0% −$10
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +33.5% +20.8% 67% 67% +21.4%
≤30d 21 -12.4% -20.8% 52% 52% -22.4%
≤90d 211 +4.8% -5.2% 56% 56% -6.9%
all 485 +2.9% -6.9% 51% 50% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 50% -7.9%
10% -15.8% 50% -16.7%
15% -24.0% 50% -24.7%
20% -31.4% 46% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$170
Realized+$143
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses245 / 240
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)485 / 488
History coverage178d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 485 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $101 $112 +$11 (+11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Yes 34¢ 16¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 131 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$12 +59%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $20 +$21 +101%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$12 -60%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 May 28 $35 −$35 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 28 $31 +$20 +65%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 May 24 $121 −$120 -99%
Málaga CF vs. Real Racing Club: Both Teams to Score May 24 $30 +$16 +54%
FC Andorra vs. AD Ceuta FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Scor May 24 $61 −$60 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5 May 24 $30 +$17 +55%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Both Teams to Score May 24 $30 +$20 +65%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 May 23 $101 +$46 +46%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 May 21 $40 −$40 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 21 $41 +$30 +73%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-23? May 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23? May 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $25 +$17 +67%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $25 +$14 +57%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 May 20 $25 +$14 +57%
Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $20 +$15 +76%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5 May 18 $41 +$36 +90%
SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to Score May 17 $66 −$63 -96%
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Racing Club de Lens: Both Teams to Score May 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score May 17 $31 −$31 -99%
SC Heerenveen vs. AFC Ajax: Both Teams to Score May 17 $40 −$23 -58%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $10 +$8 +79%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $20 +$12 +57%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will SD Eibar win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Le Mans FC win on 2026-05-09? May 16 $10 +$13 +129%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 208.5 May 16 $25 +$21 +83%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score May 16 $31 +$19 +62%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score May 12 $45 −$35 -77%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5 May 12 $26 +$20 +79%
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $20 −$17 -86%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 May 11 $20 +$15 +76%
Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to Score May 11 $40 +$24 +60%
AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC: Both Teams to Score May 10 $61 −$60 -99%
Burgos CF vs. UD Almería: Both Teams to Score May 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Will ES Troyes AC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Hull City AFC vs. Millwall FC: Both Teams to Score May 08 $30 −$30 -99%
SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: Both Teams to Score May 08 $31 +$29 +93%
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score May 04 $50 +$24 +48%
SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to Score May 04 $51 +$29 +57%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. Burgos CF: Both Teams to Score May 03 $10 −$10 -98%
SD Eibar vs. Málaga CF: Both Teams to Score May 03 $25 +$22 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $10 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $20 23h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $20 23h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $61 43h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $8 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $32 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 11d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 18d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 65¢ $35 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 60¢ $31 21d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 66¢ $121 23d
Málaga CF vs. Real Racing Club: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $47 23d
Málaga CF vs. Real Racing Club: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 64¢ $30 24d
FC Andorra vs. AD Ceuta FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10 24d
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Scor BUY Yes 65¢ $61 24d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 64¢ $30 25d
Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $30 25d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 25d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 63¢ $40 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 57¢ $41 27d
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $25 28d
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes $1 28d
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes $1 28d
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 28d
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes $2 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.06 · official $170.06 (match) · 885 history records