Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:25:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9044…6364 politics 238 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 168d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,898 (-3%) realized −$4,888 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate17%44W / 215L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$657per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 168d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$272
sports 17% −$283
world 17% −$204
economics 17% −$366
other 15% −$310
crypto 1% +$302
tech 0% −$11
culture 0% −$1
weather 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -73.1% -75.7% 18% 13% -64.8%
≤30d 41 -72.0% -74.6% 20% 12% -63.8%
≤90d 64 -49.9% -54.7% 22% 14% -45.1%
all 259 -2.5% -11.8% 17% 12% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 12% -10.7%
10% -20.2% 9% -19.3%
15% ← realistic here -27.9% 7% -27.1%
20% -35.0% 5% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +18% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$13 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized−$4,888
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses44 / 215
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions3
Markets (closed)259 / 238
History coverage168d ⚠
Avg bet$657
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $125 $115 −$10 (-8%)
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 100¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 97¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jun 22 $0 −$6 -4042%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 in November? Jun 22 $0 −$5 -3554%
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Appalachian State Jun 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 10PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Warriors vs. Lakers Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 2PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
US government shutdown by October 1? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 26, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$6 -112%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 11PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Spurs vs. Pelicans Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 10PM ET Jun 22 $189 −$187 -99%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Jun 22 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -101%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 3PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$7 -521%
Will the federal government be shut down for 1–3 days in 2025? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-11-01? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Colts vs. Rams Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 3PM ET Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA Jun 19 $75 −$74 -99%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 19 $449 +$10 +2%
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $75 −$2 -3%
Will RED Canids qualify to the EWC Jun 19 $224 −$214 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Wor Jun 18 $167 −$6 -3%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF Jun 18 $299 −$147 -49%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$2 +21%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$9 -98%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +22%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Petar Stanić score the most goals in the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Leag May 28 $70 +$1 +1%
Will Weibo Gaming qualify for EWC 2026? May 22 $70 +$6 +8%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $4 $0 -6%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Team Heretics qualify for EWC 2026? May 18 $70 $0 +0%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 16 $103 −$28 -28%
James Harden: Assists O/U 6.5 May 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 8.5 May 14 $11 −$11 -100%
James Harden: Points O/U 18.5 May 14 $8 −$8 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 09 $104 +$188 +182%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $129 1h
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $63 2d
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 60¢ $73 2d
Will RED Canids qualify to the EWC SELL Yes 0¢ $11 2d
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $58 3d
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $17 3d
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Wor BUY Yes 63¢ $2 3d
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Wor SELL Yes 61¢ $70 3d
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Wor BUY Yes 64¢ $75 3d
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF SELL No 43¢ $32 3d
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF SELL No 43¢ $34 3d
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF SELL No 43¢ $33 3d
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF BUY No 43¢ $50 3d
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF BUY No 43¢ $25 3d
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF BUY No 43¢ $20 3d
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF BUY No 43¢ $3 3d
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF BUY No 43¢ $9 3d
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF BUY No 43¢ $8 3d
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF BUY No 43¢ $34 3d
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3d
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF SELL Yes 14¢ $20 3d
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF BUY Yes 48¢ $22 3d
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF BUY Yes 48¢ $52 3d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 3d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $9 3d
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF SELL Yes 23¢ $31 3d
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF BUY Yes 54¢ $75 3d
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Wor SELL Yes 54¢ $16 3d
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Wor BUY Yes 54¢ $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.65 · official $114.58 (match) · 3500 history records