Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9047…2959 weather 219 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,189 (-2%) realized −$2,244 · open +$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate80%167W / 42L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$420per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2,405now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$37
14 days−$694
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 65% −$1,696
sports 19% −$417
other 16% −$416
politics 0% +$76
crypto 0% −$27
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -0.9% -10.3% 70% 12% -9.3%
≤30d 146 +5.0% -5.0% 82% 17% -9.3%
≤90d 209 +1.7% -8.0% 80% 17% -12.1%
all 209 +1.7% -8.0% 80% 17% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 17% -12.1%
10% -16.8% 10% -20.5%
15% -24.9% 9% -28.2%
20% -32.2% 7% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$639) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$154 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$2,405
Realized−$2,244
Unrealized+$55
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses167 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions10
Markets (closed)209 / 219
History coverage69d
Avg bet$420
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 20? No 96¢ 100¢ $1,295 $1,344 +$49 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 22? No 99¢ 98¢ $296 $295 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? No 98¢ 99¢ $271 $274 +$3 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 20? No 97¢ 100¢ $239 $246 +$7 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 21? No 99¢ 97¢ $158 $156 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? No 92¢ 92¢ $50 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by at least 15%? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $32 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $118 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $580 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $796 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $685 +$15 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $146 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $600 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $314 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $120 −$21 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $639 +$13 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $100 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $130 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $762 +$12 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $108 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $600 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $86 −$86 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $1,736 +$80 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$21 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$24 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $52 +$84 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $884 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $2,490 +$16 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $128 +$3 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $36 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 +$81 +519%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $27 +$41 +153%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $2,261 +$72 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $111 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $2,042 +$24 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $461 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $922 +$29 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $335 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $736 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $506 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $818 −$8 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $210 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $448 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $162 +$29 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 83¢ $10 1m
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 97¢ $10 17m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $10 25m
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY Yes 91¢ $10 37m
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $33 41m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $148 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $241 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 92¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $148 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $122 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $158 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 20? SELL No 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $79 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $106 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 55¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $113 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $191 7h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $45 8h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $101 9h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $33 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $589 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $802 10h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $601 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,405.25 · official $2,405.25 (match) · 1115 history records