Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:13:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
90 0x904b…fa57 sports 224 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$38 (-1%) realized −$32 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%53W / 77L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day33.4pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$446
7 days+$835
14 days+$881
30 days+$881
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$804
other 27% +$55
crypto 1% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 +24.5% +12.7% 42% 40% +32.4%
≤30d 130 +21.9% +10.3% 41% 39% +25.5%
≤90d 130 +21.9% +10.3% 41% 39% +25.5%
all 130 +21.9% +10.3% 41% 39% +25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.3% 39% +25.5%
10% ← realistic here -0.3% 35% +13.5%
15% -9.9% 32% +2.5%
20% -18.7% 30% -7.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$6 · ×4.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.05 per $1 lost it wins $3.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses53 / 77
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions2
Markets (closed)130 / 224
History coverage9d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day33.4
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 54¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 Over 66¢ 48¢ $22 $16 −$6 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score AND Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Ad Jun 29 $6 +$7 +117%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $35 +$18 +51%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $25 −$1 -4%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals Jun 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance AND South Africa vs. Canada: Jun 29 $25 +$13 +51%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 29 $7 +$10 +136%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Canada? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $15 +$13 +88%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AN Jun 28 $10 +$15 +152%
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $10 +$13 +132%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $25 +$9 +37%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 28 $15 −$5 -31%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Panama vs. England: O/U 7. Jun 28 $15 +$10 +66%
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Jun 28 $55 +$310 +563%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals Jun 28 $5 +$19 +377%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? A Jun 28 $20 +$13 +65%
Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals Jun 28 $5 +$11 +206%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $15 +$14 +90%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $80 +$44 +55%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 Portugal? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 Portugal? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$1 -6%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 27 $10 $0 -1%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $48 −$47 -99%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $15 −$1 -6%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals AND Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals Jun 27 $10 +$45 +452%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Will Br Jun 27 $4 +$21 +510%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $76 −$5 -7%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Will Spain w Jun 26 $10 +$47 +467%
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Jun 26 $40 +$9 +22%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 26 $10 +$1 +11%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $3 +$5 +152%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams Jun 26 $10 +$13 +132%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 26 $15 +$13 +84%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$16 +81%
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $24 +$8 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance AND Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to BUY 12¢ $3 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? AND Will United States win on 2026-07-0 BUY $3 1h
Spain vs. Austria: Team to Advance AND Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team BUY $3 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance AND Netherlands vs. Morocco: BUY 22¢ $20 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $30 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance AND Germany vs. Paraguay: Tea BUY 54¢ $20 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 43¢ $5 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $25 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score AND Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Ad BUY 45¢ $6 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 72¢ $30 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $22 12h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY 15¢ $10 13h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Exact Score: Brazil 3 BUY $5 13h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? AND Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Mo BUY $5 13h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? AND Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Mo BUY $5 13h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? AND Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Mo BUY $5 13h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes $1 13h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes $2 13h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes $1 13h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 AN BUY 10¢ $11 13h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY 17¢ $20 13h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Will Germany win on 20 BUY $5 13h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Wil BUY 39¢ $15 13h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil BUY 24¢ $15 13h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $25 13h
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals BUY Yes $2 13h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $5 13h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $5 13h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 AND Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to BUY 45¢ $10 13h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 AND Germany to score first vs. P BUY 41¢ $25 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.28 · official $173.61 · 351 history records