Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:30:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
90 0x904d…c966 other 118 markets active 2d ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$22
politics 35% −$13
sports 10% +$10
tech 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +41.1% +27.7% 20% 20% +0.9%
≤30d 14 +14.6% +3.7% 7% 7% -8.1%
≤90d 95 +1.5% -8.2% 4% 3% -9.4%
all 117 +0.8% -8.8% 9% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 7% -9.4%
10% -17.5% 6% -18.1%
15% -25.5% 3% -26.0%
20% -32.8% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×12.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 107
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage118d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $190 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 +$31 +206%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 20 $24 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $18 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $131 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $159 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $173 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $291 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $172 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $146 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 17 $169 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $172 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $128 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $158 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $258 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $135 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $155 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $169 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $148 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $122 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $159 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $120 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $138 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 05 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $168 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $144 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $273 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $156 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $120 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 02 $448 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $311 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $136 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $155 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $157 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $160 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $305 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $139 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $27 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $155 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $108 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $26 2d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 2d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $15 4d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $18 4d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $18 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $24 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $24 5d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 6d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 10d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 11d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 11d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 11d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 11d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 13d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 15d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 15d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 16d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 16d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 17d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 18d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 19d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $145 28d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $145 28d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $149 29d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $149 29d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $159 29d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $159 31d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $173 31d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $173 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.01 · official $26.01 (match) · 334 history records