Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:46:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x904e…0bec sports 104 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 2d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (966 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$153,183 (+116%) realized +$153,636 · open −$453
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate53%46W / 41L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,265per market
Trades / day966.0pace
Fees−$1,564est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$589
other 0% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (966 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -3.1% -12.3% 53% 32% -9.7%
≤30d 87 -3.1% -12.3% 53% 32% -9.7%
≤90d 87 -3.1% -12.3% 53% 32% -9.7%
all 87 -3.1% -12.3% 53% 32% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover966.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 32% -9.7%
10% -20.7% 13% -18.3%
15% ← realistic here -28.4% 7% -26.2%
20% -35.4% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$1,681) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
27.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$134 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1,174
Realized+$153,636
Unrealized−$453
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses46 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$1,564
Open positions21
Markets (closed)87 / 104
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$1,265
Trades / day966.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner Fortress 48¢ 78¢ $153 $249 +$96 (+63%)
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B 4ikibamboni 60¢ 64¢ $207 $221 +$14 (+7%)
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division 1 Playoffs Fortress 59¢ 60¢ $202 $206 +$4 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Nuclear TigeRES 61¢ 100¢ $68 $111 +$43 (+64%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner KOLESIE 62¢ 40¢ $141 $92 −$49 (-34%)
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Amaru Gaming 8¢ 6¢ $114 $83 −$31 (-27%)
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Flame Team 37¢ 36¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: PENSIONERS vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoffs PENSIONERS 23¢ 24¢ $42 $44 +$2 (+4%)
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Amaru Gaming 8¢ 7¢ $49 $42 −$6 (-12%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage KOLESIE 26¢ 26¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner AaB Bulls 19¢ 22¢ $9 $11 +$1 (+16%)
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug - Game 1 Winner NA, wed win 19¢ 50¢ $4 $11 +$7 (+164%)
Valorant: Fancy United vs Sharper Esport (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Playoffs Sharper Esport 11¢ 100¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+809%)
Counter-Strike: banda chuya vs WeClear - Map 2 Winner WeClear 39¢ 24¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Counter-Strike: gothboiclique vs Sangal ALTERS (BO3) - TESFED League Play-In Sangal ALTERS 5¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$2 (+890%)
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Open Qualifier 1 Playoffs NA, wed win 11¢ 1¢ $29 $1 −$28 (-95%)
Counter-Strike: banda chuya vs WeClear (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoffs WeClear 30¢ 52¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+75%)
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug - Game 2 Winner NA, wed win 28¢ 1¢ $36 $1 −$36 (-98%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner KOLESIE 4¢ 0¢ $43 $1 −$43 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: SNITKO Esports vs unknowns - Map 1 Winner unknowns 4¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner 4ikibamboni 69¢ 0¢ $295 $0 −$295 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Team Nemesis 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Valorant: Fancy United vs Sharper Esport - Map 2 Winner Fancy United 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $2,136 −$83 -4%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $53 +$17 +31%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $97 −$34 -35%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $477 −$16 -3%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 17 $203 −$72 -35%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $408 −$83 -20%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $798 −$112 -14%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 17 $113 −$39 -34%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 17 $1,743 −$112 -6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,990 −$308 -16%
Counter-Strike: EAC Rising vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $361 +$7 +2%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $53 +$11 +22%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 17 $10,611 −$116 -1%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof Jun 17 $312 +$62 +20%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $57 +$25 +44%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $61 +$43 +70%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $488 +$116 +24%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Amer Jun 17 $137 +$50 +37%
Counter-Strike: EAC Rising vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 17 $319 +$66 +21%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $2,985 +$338 +11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $1,681 +$330 +20%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,132 +$271 +24%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $9,594 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $4,042 −$237 -6%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $681 +$55 +8%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,897 −$27 -1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,584 +$337 +13%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,473 −$61 -4%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3,415 +$37 +1%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5,404 −$496 -9%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $568 +$4 +1%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 15 $160 +$21 +13%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $643 +$86 +13%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $4,265 +$139 +3%
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast A Jun 15 $165 −$11 -7%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $572 −$572 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $779 −$497 -64%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $518 −$9 -2%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C Jun 15 $867 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $974 +$45 +5%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $4,702 −$948 -20%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,580 −$200 -13%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $829 +$80 +10%
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $254 −$5 -2%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,743 +$254 +15%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 15 $17 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $149 −$25 -16%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $465 −$8 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner BUY AaB Bulls 40¢ $4 0m
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner BUY AaB Bulls 14¢ $5 0m
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 58¢ $92 0m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 21¢ $9 0m
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 61¢ $115 0m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 78¢ $71 1m
Counter-Strike: PENSIONERS vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Final BUY PENSIONERS 25¢ $39 1m
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 36¢ $4 1m
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 38¢ $67 1m
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner BUY AaB Bulls 48¢ $29 1m
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 39¢ $54 1m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 74¢ $39 1m
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 61¢ $4 2m
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 59¢ $80 2m
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 58¢ $118 2m
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 6¢ $21 2m
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 38¢ $79 2m
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner BUY Fortress 61¢ $7 2m
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 35¢ $97 2m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 71¢ $14 3m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 49¢ $12 3m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 67¢ $17 3m
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 40¢ $4 3m
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 38¢ $4 3m
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 35¢ $3 3m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 57¢ $17 4m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 55¢ $3 4m
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 69¢ $40 5m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 53¢ $4 5m
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 60¢ $11 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,173.75 · official $1,388.84 · 3500 history records