Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:49:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9051…fc3e politics 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 676d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$93 (-1%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate28%13W / 33L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$32
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$4
other 37% −$17
economics 8% −$4
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% −$21
sports 0% −$31
world 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -28.0% -34.9% 11% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 11 -32.0% -38.5% 18% 0% -11.8%
all 46 -27.4% -34.3% 28% 20% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.3% 20% -10.8%
10% -40.6% 17% -19.4%
15% -46.4% 7% -27.1%
20% -51.6% 7% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -33% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

676d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses13 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage676d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $450 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Jun 18 $50 −$21 -42%
Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? Jun 13 $273 +$1 +0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 02 $300 $0 -0%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 31 $1,231 −$3 -0%
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? May 28 $296 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 15 $395 $0 +0%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 14 $32 −$31 -99%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 09 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? Feb 09 $0 $0 -0%
Fulham wins the Premier League? Feb 09 $0 $0 +67%
Crystal Palace wins the Premier League? Feb 09 $0 $0 +33%
Everton wins the Premier League? Feb 09 $0 $0 -33%
Leicester City wins the Premier League? Feb 09 $0 $0 +33%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Feb 09 $4 −$4 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 09 $21 +$7 +32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in January? Feb 09 $81 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $120 $0 +0%
Will Harry Kane win the Ballon d’Or? Jan 20 $0 $0 +25%
Will Joe Biden be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Jan 20 $0 $0 +33%
Will Kamala Harris be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Jan 20 $0 $0 +14%
Will Nico Williams win the Ballon d’Or? Jan 20 $0 $0 -13%
Will another team win the 2024 F1 Constructors Championship? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the World Series? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the World Series? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the World Series? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will AOC win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gretchen Whitmer be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will any other Democrat Politician win the popular vote in the 2024 Pr Jan 20 $511 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jan 20 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Oakland Athletics win the World Series? Sep 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Washington Nationals win the World Series? Sep 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the World Series? Sep 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 30 $0 $0 +100%
Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? Aug 19 $0 $0 +100%
Will Hillary Clinton win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Ele Aug 19 $508 −$1 -0%
Will RFK Jr. win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Aug 19 $513 −$1 -0%
Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec Aug 19 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 19 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 19 $514 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $449 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $450 6h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $29 7d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 7d
Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 12d
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 12d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 13d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 13d
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $142 18d
Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 19d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $299 24d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $300 24d
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? BUY No 22¢ $11 25d
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 25d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $188 26d
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 26d
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $141 26d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $187 27d
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $47 28d
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $49 28d
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $1 28d
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $46 28d
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $49 28d
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $28 28d
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $246 28d
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $98 28d
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $49 28d
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $29 28d
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $27 28d
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $1 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 223 history records