Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:12:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
90 0x9051…32d2 sports 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$280 (+7%) realized +$180 · open +$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate60%71W / 48L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day25.9pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days−$136
14 days+$267
30 days+$246
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$349
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +3.4% -6.4% 58% 53% -16.9%
≤30d 119 +1.3% -8.3% 60% 56% -3.9%
≤90d 119 +1.3% -8.3% 60% 56% -3.9%
all 119 +1.3% -8.3% 60% 56% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 56% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 48% -13.1%
15% -25.1% 39% -21.5%
20% -32.4% 25% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$29 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$268
Realized+$180
Unrealized+$100
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses71 / 48
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions4
Markets (closed)119 / 123
History coverage15d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day25.9
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs INOX Division 30¢ 66¢ $59 $130 +$71 (+120%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 43¢ 57¢ $60 $80 +$20 (+33%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 40¢ 48¢ $40 $48 +$8 (+20%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $31 +$39 +129%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $105 +$79 +75%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $8 +$25 +325%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr Jun 18 $6 +$3 +50%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $61 +$41 +68%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $59 −$58 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $11 +$26 +244%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 17 $28 +$32 +117%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $61 +$56 +92%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $30 +$18 +60%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 15 $26 +$2 +6%
Counter-Strike: Festina Lente vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Jun 14 $21 +$5 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $20 +$5 +24%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 14 $9 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 14 $37 −$36 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $40 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $59 +$8 +14%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $60 +$26 +43%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 13 $60 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $20 +$8 +42%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $60 +$24 +40%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $60 +$122 +202%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $61 −$59 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $60 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Washed (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $20 +$13 +63%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A Jun 12 $20 +$14 +72%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $55 −$18 -33%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $60 +$30 +49%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 12 $20 +$12 +61%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs STATE (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A Jun 12 $20 +$6 +27%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs Invicta (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A Jun 12 $40 +$13 +33%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $20 +$2 +11%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $40 +$25 +62%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $31 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $60 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Jun 12 $48 −$47 -99%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs F5 Esports (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 12 $82 −$5 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 38¢ $31 33m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 50¢ $30 36m
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY INOX Division 31¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY INOX Division 29¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 91¢ $30 22h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 84¢ $30 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 43¢ $31 22h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 47¢ $8 23h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 35¢ $31 23h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 50¢ $6 23h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY HOTU 26¢ $31 25h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 23¢ $8 26h
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr BUY ex-MANA eSports 66¢ $6 27h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P BUY Walczaki 90¢ $12 28h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P BUY Walczaki 90¢ $18 28h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P BUY Walczaki 44¢ $31 28h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 66¢ $30 30h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 26¢ $31 45h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 53¢ $29 45h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 21¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 35¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 35¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 35¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 46¢ $28 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 62¢ $18 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 62¢ $12 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 44¢ $31 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 62¢ $30 3d
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 48¢ $13 3d
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 48¢ $17 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $267.55 · official $267.55 (match) · 468 history records