Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:20:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
90 0x9054…d26f other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this
Total PnL +$453 (+9%) realized +$488 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate68%28W / 13L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$272
7 days+$913
14 days+$983
30 days+$1,134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$93
sports 25% +$864
politics 9% +$147
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +28.2% +16.0% 66% 66% +12.8%
≤30d 41 +32.3% +19.7% 68% 68% +14.3%
≤90d 41 +32.3% +19.7% 68% 68% +14.3%
all 41 +32.3% +19.7% 68% 68% +14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.7% 68% +14.3%
10% +8.2% 63% +3.3%
15% -2.2% 56% -6.7%
20% -11.8% 44% -15.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$63 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.39 per $1 lost it wins $2.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$488
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses28 / 13
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions6
Markets (closed)41 / 57
History coverage49d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 64¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $15 $24 +$9 (+63%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-28%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-88%)
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $23 $2 −$21 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $91 +$26 +29%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $402 −$314 -78%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 +$13 +65%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $81 +$42 +52%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Norway win on 2026-06 Jun 23 $153 +$452 +295%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 23 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 23 $181 −$181 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $273 −$1 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $304 +$191 +63%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$50 +50%
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 22 $102 +$80 +79%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $380 +$67 +18%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 21 $313 −$109 -35%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 +$88 +44%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$30 +60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $41 +$84 +206%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 +$37 +92%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $202 +$131 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $27 +$17 +62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$38 +148%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$13 -66%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Colombia win on 2026 Jun 18 $100 +$120 +120%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $154 +$61 +40%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$21 +51%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $25 +$40 +158%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 17 $121 +$44 +36%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $81 +$38 +48%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 16 $60 +$9 +14%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 +$28 +70%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$12 +238%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $81 −$39 -48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$5 -25%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$6 +29%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $77 +$20 +26%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $224 +$151 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 1.5 AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 BUY 39¢ $120 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $91 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 19¢ $88 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $402 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $20 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 31¢ $46 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 48¢ $102 17h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $81 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $273 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $273 21h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Norway win on 2026-06 BUY 25¢ $82 23h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Norway win on 2026-06 BUY 25¢ $72 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 62¢ $101 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 60¢ $202 44h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 44h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian SELL Yes 97¢ $182 44h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $342 44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 64¢ $101 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 87¢ $302 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 44¢ $31 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 63¢ $30 2d
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 53¢ $102 2d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 39¢ $204 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 27¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 2d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $100 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $51 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 38¢ $102 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.43 · official $216.43 · 132 history records