Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:25:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9055…756a sports 303 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$91,437 (+10%) realized +$107,811 · open −$16,374
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate83%252W / 51L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$3,171per market
Trades / day93.2pace
Fees−$1,652est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$40,633now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$3,625
politics 24% −$16,214
other 4% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +30.4% +18.0% 86% 3% -8.1%
≤30d 271 +9.9% -0.6% 84% 7% -9.1%
≤90d 303 +9.2% -1.2% 83% 8% -9.0%
all 303 +9.2% -1.2% 83% 8% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.2% 8% -9.0%
10% -10.6% 3% -17.7%
15% ← realistic here -19.3% 2% -25.6%
20% -27.2% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$3,489) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$312 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$40,633
Realized+$107,811
Unrealized−$16,374
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses252 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$1,652
Open positions3
Markets (closed)303 / 303
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$3,171
Trades / day93.2
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 91¢ $20,000 $36,380 +$16,380 (+82%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 9¢ $20,000 $3,620 −$16,380 (-82%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner PlayTime 99¢ 100¢ $627 $633 +$6 (+1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 94¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs Jun 19 $6 +$239 +4245%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $9,453 +$47 +0%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $2,963 +$37 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 18 $7,652 −$13 -0%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 18 $4,140 +$43 +1%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,526 +$16 +1%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $3,403 −$34 -1%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ame Jun 17 $2,950 +$153 +5%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $2,783 +$24 +1%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $434 +$28 +6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $993 +$7 +1%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $2,567 +$193 +8%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,174 +$103 +9%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer Jun 16 $3,527 +$4 +0%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $1,099 +$11 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $2,525 +$54 +2%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $364 +$11 +3%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $961 +$30 +3%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 16 $289 +$5 +2%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $233 +$5 +2%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $465 +$1 +0%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 16 $6,220 +$471 +8%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $942 +$28 +3%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $128 +$5 +4%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $568 −$306 -54%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $97 +$3 +3%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $591 +$31 +5%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 15 $813 +$8 +1%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2,940 +$27 +1%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $956 −$27 -3%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,888 +$112 +2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $1,896 +$18 +1%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $214 +$10 +5%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $940 +$9 +1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,900 +$100 +5%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,940 +$60 +3%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $1,950 +$50 +3%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,922 +$78 +4%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $980 +$20 +2%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $1,788 +$18 +1%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $949 +$43 +4%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $1,440 +$44 +3%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $2,951 +$23 +1%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $475 +$25 +5%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $4,078 +$100 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3,882 +$98 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $2,971 +$14 +0%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $2,449 +$24 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 99¢ $65 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 99¢ $477 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 99¢ $30 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 99¢ $54 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,981 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 99¢ $259 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 99¢ $124 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 99¢ $107 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 99¢ $994 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 99¢ $2,983 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 99¢ $4 11h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 99¢ $42 11h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 99¢ $70 11h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 99¢ $83 11h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 99¢ $461 11h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 99¢ $990 11h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 99¢ $20 11h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 99¢ $20 11h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 99¢ $10 11h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 99¢ $30 11h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 99¢ $13 11h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 98¢ $1,221 11h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY PlayTime 99¢ $196 25h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY PlayTime 99¢ $202 25h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY PlayTime 99¢ $591 25h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY PlayTime 99¢ $202 25h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 99¢ $130 25h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 99¢ $10 25h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 99¢ $296 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40,633.17 · official $40,633.04 (match) · 3500 history records