trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 4¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-60%) |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 13 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 11 | $3 | $0 | -12% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 10 | $40 | −$1 | -2% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York | Jun 29 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will the PPC win 1 seat in the next Canadian Election? | Apr 19 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on April 19? | Apr 19 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Trump x Xi talk by Friday? | Apr 18 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? | Apr 17 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? | Apr 16 | $10 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? | Apr 16 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 | Apr 15 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? | Apr 15 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 14 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 12 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 09 | $1 | $0 | -20% |
| Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 | Apr 07 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? | Mar 23 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? | Mar 17 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Florida Gulf Coast vs. Stetson | Mar 04 | $6 | +$5 | +75% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -3.6% | -12.8% | 0% | 0% | -10.4% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -3.6% | -12.8% | 0% | 0% | -10.4% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -3.6% | -12.8% | 0% | 0% | -10.4% |
| all | 20 | -6.8% | -15.7% | 30% | 5% | -11.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.7% | 5% | -11.6% |
| 10% | -23.7% | 5% | -20.1% |
| 15% | -31.1% | 5% | -27.8% |
| 20% | -37.9% | 5% | -34.9% |