trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +0.5% | -9.1% | 67% | 0% | -9.0% |
| ≤30d | 10 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 20% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 20% | 0% | -9.5% |
| all | 22 | -3.6% | -12.8% | 36% | 5% | -10.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.8% | 5% | -10.0% |
| 10% | -21.1% | 0% | -18.7% |
| 15% | -28.8% | 0% | -26.5% |
| 20% | -35.7% | 0% | -33.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | $31 | $31 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 19 | $39 | $0 | +1% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 18 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 17 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 02 | $35 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 01 | $35 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 31 | $75 | $0 | -1% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 30 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 29 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 29 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $1 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 24 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? | May 23 | $2 | $0 | +11% |
| Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? | May 22 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Wei Yi win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament? | May 20 | $9 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $9 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? | Apr 19 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 08 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? | Apr 06 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 01 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 30 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 64°F or higher on March 23? | Mar 23 | $13 | $0 | +0% |