trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 4 | -13.5% | -21.7% | 25% | 0% | -10.5% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -4.7% | -13.7% | 25% | 0% | -10.0% |
| all | 28 | -9.0% | -17.6% | 32% | 0% | -12.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.6% | 0% | -12.0% |
| 10% | -25.5% | 0% | -20.4% |
| 15% | -32.7% | 0% | -28.1% |
| 20% | -39.3% | 0% | -35.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | No | 89¢ | 91¢ | $28 | $28 | +$1 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 27 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 25 | $2 | −$1 | -52% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | May 25 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 24 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 24 | $31 | $0 | -0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 24 | $31 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 23 | $28 | $0 | +1% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 23 | $31 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 21 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 21 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | May 18 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 18 | $29 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 18 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? | May 24 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? | May 21 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? | May 20 | $8 | +$1 | +9% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio | Apr 20 | $20 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Apr 19 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Ethereum all time high by June 30? | Apr 18 | $9 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | Apr 16 | $10 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? | Apr 14 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Apr 13 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 12 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Apr 08 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? | Mar 23 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting? | Mar 21 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend? | Mar 15 | $13 | $0 | -1% |