Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:08:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x905f…ad6b sports 866 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 117d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,569 (-34%) realized −$11,526 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate53%461W / 401L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 118d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$67
crypto 24% −$1,308
other 14% −$94
culture 0% −$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +10.1% -0.4% 62% 52% -1.3%
≤30d 130 -8.4% -17.1% 53% 38% -5.0%
≤90d 632 -8.7% -17.4% 54% 40% -11.2%
all 862 -9.9% -18.5% 53% 37% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 37% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 26% -21.6%
15% -33.4% 18% -29.2%
20% -40.0% 13% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$367
Realized−$11,526
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses461 / 401
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions4
Markets (closed)862 / 866
History coverage118d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 862 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky Las Vegas Aces 93¢ 94¢ $367 $367 +$0 (+0%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-99%)
Will Olympic Dcheira win on 2026-06-28? No 73¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Kawkab AC end in a draw? No 74¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $134 +$86 +64%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $474 −$295 -62%
Will EC Juventude vs. Ceará SC end in a draw? Jun 28 $20 +$4 +18%
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $20 +$7 +33%
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 28 $2 $0 +10%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $102 +$245 +240%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $293 +$141 +48%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $320 −$96 -30%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $126 +$178 +141%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $102 −$56 -54%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $152 −$75 -49%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $6 −$1 -15%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 27 $4 +$1 +37%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $53 −$36 -68%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $365 +$81 +22%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $97 +$15 +15%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $20 +$1 +7%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Elena Micic vs Ayla Aksu Jun 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 02 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 02 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 31 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 31 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Tokushima Vortis win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova May 30 $2 −$1 -66%
Will Albirex Niigata vs. Kagoshima United FC end in a draw? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 30 $7 +$2 +32%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $7 −$3 -49%
Will Kagoshima United FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 $0 -22%
Will Iwaki FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Renofa Yamaguchi FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky BUY Las Vegas Aces 93¢ $367 5m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $220 6m
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $147 6m
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 12m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 93¢ $33 16m
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $33 16m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 7¢ $24 19m
Will EC Juventude vs. Ceará SC end in a draw? SELL No 85¢ $24 19m
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $171 26m
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 28m
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 98¢ $27 41m
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $101 1h
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 2h
Will EC Juventude vs. Ceará SC end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $20 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 3h
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Kawkab AC end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $10 3h
Will Olympic Dcheira win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 73¢ $10 3h
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 91¢ $2 6h
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC end in a draw? BUY No 64¢ $5 9h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 94¢ $348 17h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 97¢ $259 17h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $176 17h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $175 18h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $117 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $114 18h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $218 18h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 60¢ $209 18h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 60¢ $13 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 19h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $367.05 · official $357.24 · 3500 history records