Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:43:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9063…da18 sports 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (436 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$86 (+0%) realized +$111 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate59%27W / 19L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$570per market
Trades / day436.0pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$490now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$1,048
sports 36% −$385
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (436 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -11.2% -19.7% 59% 35% -6.9%
≤30d 46 -11.2% -19.7% 59% 35% -6.9%
≤90d 46 -11.2% -19.7% 59% 35% -6.9%
all 46 -11.2% -19.7% 59% 35% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover436.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 35% -6.9%
10% -27.3% 17% -15.8%
15% ← realistic here -34.4% 13% -24.0%
20% -40.8% 11% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$589) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$142 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$490
Realized+$111
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses27 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions4
Markets (closed)46 / 50
History coverage1d
Avg bet$570
Trades / day436.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 57¢ 56¢ $352 $348 −$3 (-1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Chicago Cubs 59¢ 44¢ $87 $65 −$22 (-25%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Philadelphia Phillies 31¢ 70¢ $23 $52 +$29 (+126%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 30¢ 30¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,708 +$166 +10%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $86 +$21 +24%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 25 $3,940 +$170 +4%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Brazil? Jun 25 $46 +$6 +12%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $505 +$398 +79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $770 +$16 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4,744 +$1,177 +25%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 3 Haiti? Jun 25 $42 +$6 +15%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $1,746 +$97 +6%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 25 $60 +$50 +83%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2,667 +$216 +8%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1,795 +$299 +17%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 25 $1,053 −$241 -23%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 25 $23 +$2 +8%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 25 $1,087 +$72 +7%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $893 −$352 -39%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $188 −$95 -51%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 25 $13 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 24 $642 −$637 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $603 −$592 -98%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 24 $308 −$93 -30%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $58 −$58 -100%
Haiti leading at halftime? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $240 −$107 -44%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $107 −$3 -2%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 24 $5 $0 +5%
Qatar leading at halftime? Jun 24 $124 +$23 +18%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,812 +$52 +3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $577 +$71 +12%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 24 $22 −$6 -26%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $125 +$92 +74%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 24 $77 +$10 +12%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $19 −$2 -9%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $350 +$246 +70%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $23 +$1 +5%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $269 +$121 +45%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $452 −$442 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 24 $206 +$7 +4%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 24 $41 +$9 +21%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $250 +$40 +16%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $41 +$27 +66%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $24 −$24 -99%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $87 −$40 -46%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 24 $162 −$8 -5%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 30¢ $15 17m
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 59¢ $87 18m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 21¢ $10 29m
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $16 42m
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $215 42m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 89¢ $9 43m
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Haiti 96¢ $42 45m
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 85¢ $11 46m
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 85¢ $3 46m
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 81¢ $14 46m
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 81¢ $19 46m
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 81¢ $33 46m
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $9 46m
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 91¢ $27 47m
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 91¢ $18 47m
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY No 93¢ $93 47m
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY No 94¢ $1 47m
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 47m
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY No 95¢ $1,168 47m
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY No 94¢ $27 47m
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY No 94¢ $400 47m
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY No 93¢ $57 47m
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Haiti 87¢ $9 48m
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? BUY Yes $1 50m
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? BUY Yes $3 50m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $140 51m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $95 51m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $38 51m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $89 51m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $9 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $489.62 · official $489.68 (match) · 482 history records