Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:16:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9063…bd49 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized −$12 · open +$19
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate33%10W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$633now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$87
7 days−$97
14 days−$97
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% +$179
politics 33% −$3
other 25% −$194
crypto 2% −$48
world 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -8.1% -16.8% 33% 23% -15.0%
≤30d 30 -8.1% -16.8% 33% 23% -15.0%
≤90d 30 -8.1% -16.8% 33% 23% -15.0%
all 30 -8.1% -16.8% 33% 23% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 23% -15.0%
10% -24.8% 17% -23.2%
15% -32.0% 10% -30.6%
20% -38.7% 10% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$15 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$633
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses10 / 20
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage8d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $543 $551 +$8 (+1%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 38¢ $70 $82 +$12 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $123 −$45 -37%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $27 −$12 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $113 −$6 -5%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $666 +$78 +12%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$75 -73%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$3 -21%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $56 −$35 -62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $93 −$36 -39%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$73 +367%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $24 −$4 -18%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $18 +$6 +35%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $15 −$2 -13%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15 +$5 +31%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $15 $0 -2%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 −$33 -94%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $48 +$2 +4%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 +$22 +122%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$8 -53%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $40 +$7 +17%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 14 $6 $0 -3%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$11 +74%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$11 -42%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $34 −$10 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $72 38m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $59 38m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $13 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $18 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $56 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $19 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $46 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $55 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $38 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $107 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $113 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $250 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $214 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $214 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $195 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 69¢ $195 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $173 2h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $174 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $14 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $87 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 54¢ $1 3h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $86 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $632.78 · official $632.78 (match) · 102 history records