Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:52:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9063…433a other 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$100 (-14%) realized −$66 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate73%8W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$40
14 days−$0
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$105
sports 10% +$13
world 6% $0
weather 5% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +11.8% +1.2% 86% 43% +6.9%
≤30d 11 -5.8% -14.8% 73% 36% -20.0%
≤90d 11 -5.8% -14.8% 73% 36% -20.0%
all 11 -5.8% -14.8% 73% 36% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 36% -20.0%
10% -22.9% 27% -27.6%
15% -30.4% 18% -34.6%
20% -37.2% 9% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$36 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$250
Realized−$66
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses8 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)11 / 20
History coverage19d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $87 $66 −$22 (-25%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $47 $52 +$5 (+10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $55 $35 −$20 (-37%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $40 $33 −$7 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 30? No 0¢ 74¢ $0 $10 +$10 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 30? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 30? No 55¢ 55¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 30? No 51¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 30? Jun 29 $4 $0 -4%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 29 $5 $0 +3%
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $67 +$13 +19%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 29 $40 $0 +1%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $46 +$12 +26%
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 26 $41 +$15 +36%
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 26 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $35 $0 +1%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $42 −$41 -97%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $70 −$68 -97%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $41 +$21 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 30? BUY No 73¢ $7 4m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 30? BUY No 73¢ $3 5m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 30? BUY No 51¢ $2 7m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 30? BUY No 51¢ $1 18m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 19m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 30? BUY No 55¢ $9 25m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 30? SELL No 68¢ $3 30m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 69¢ $4 30m
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Paraguay 93¢ $5 38m
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 90¢ $5 43m
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $80 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 84¢ $66 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 84¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 4h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $40 6h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 8h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $58 47h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $36 3d
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 3d
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $2 3d
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $52 3d
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $20 3d
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $35 8d
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $19 12d
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $16 12d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $68 14d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $29 14d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $41 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.23 · official $250.26 (match) · 59 history records