Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:25:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
90 0x9064…2f30 crypto 1153 markets active 2h ago coverage 220d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 220d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$201 (+0%) realized +$162 · open +$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate94%1082W / 65L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$8
14 days+$39
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$36
other 3% −$81
sports 2% +$14
tech 2% +$97
world 1% +$27
finance 0% +$37
politics 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 65 +0.8% -8.8% 98% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 279 +0.2% -9.3% 97% 2% -9.6%
all 1147 +0.0% -9.5% 94% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 5% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$20 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$1,142
Realized+$162
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses1082 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1147 / 1153
History coverage220d ⚠
Avg bet$101
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 99¢ $458 $495 +$37 (+8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? No 99¢ 99¢ $156 $156 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $148 $150 +$2 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? No 99¢ 99¢ $142 $141 −$1 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $497 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $196 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $483 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $153 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $897 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $531 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $71 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $598 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $196 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $204 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $186 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $451 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $139 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $155 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $395 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $396 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $92 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $652 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $360 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $178 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $93 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $76 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $929 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $346 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? May 31 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 30? May 30 $498 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 30? May 30 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 31? May 30 $369 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on June 1? May 30 $398 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? May 30 $198 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 30? May 30 $597 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 31? May 30 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 29? May 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? May 29 $178 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 28 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 28? May 28 $34 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 27? May 27 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 27? May 27 $981 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 26? May 26 $198 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $57 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $142 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $99 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $148 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $298 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $99 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $99 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $199 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $196 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $483 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $30 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $30 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $531 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $897 9d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $96 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $92 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $50 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $199 11d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $91 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $598 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $186 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $154 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $47 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $149 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $56 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $71 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $197 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $100 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $40 14d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $89 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,141.78 · official $1,141.78 (match) · 3438 history records