Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:17:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9065…6f4b crypto 635 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,820 (-14%) realized −$3,844 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%319W / 310L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day46.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$197
7 days−$197
14 days+$32
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,071
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +13.0% +2.2% 57% 57% -24.2%
≤30d 37 +13.5% +2.7% 57% 57% -8.1%
≤90d 629 -2.3% -11.6% 51% 51% -16.7%
all 629 -2.3% -11.6% 51% 51% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 51% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 51% -24.6%
15% -27.8% 51% -31.9%
20% -34.8% 51% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$44 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$301
Realized−$3,844
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses319 / 310
Open positions8
Markets (closed)629 / 635
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$42
Trades / day46.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 629 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Down 46¢ 50¢ $97 $104 +$7 (+7%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 37¢ 50¢ $43 $57 +$14 (+34%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $38 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $26 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 38¢ 50¢ $9 $11 +$3 (+30%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 49¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $72 −$72 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $71 −$71 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$11 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $13 +$13 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $76 −$76 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $71 +$71 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $12 +$12 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $60 +$60 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $144 −$144 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$16 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $151 +$151 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 20 $74 −$74 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $69 +$69 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$15 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $33 +$33 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $32 +$32 +99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$25 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $54 −$54 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $46 −$46 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $66 +$66 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $60 +$60 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $54 +$54 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $91 +$91 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $105 +$105 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 10 $47 +$47 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 10 $55 −$55 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 10 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 10 $43 +$43 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 10 $45 +$45 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 10 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Apr 28 $22 +$22 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 28 $18 +$16 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 28 $70 −$70 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 28 $29 +$27 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 28 $23 +$20 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 28 $24 +$21 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 28 $20 +$19 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 28 $20 +$19 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 28 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Apr 28 $20 +$19 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $30 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $101 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $9 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $44 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.64 · official $299.91 (match) · 3500 history records