Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:18:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x906c…1df2 crypto 149 markets active 6d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$19 (-4%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%66W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -12.8% -21.1% 36% 36% -21.0%
≤30d 149 -6.7% -15.6% 44% 44% -13.5%
≤90d 149 -6.7% -15.6% 44% 44% -13.5%
all 149 -6.7% -15.6% 44% 44% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 44% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 43% -21.8%
15% -31.0% 39% -29.3%
20% -37.8% 32% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses66 / 83
Open positions0
Markets (closed)149 / 149
History coverage7d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 149 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$4 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$3 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$3 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 305 history records